Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 1.459271 1.523303 1.589760 1.664103 1.745217 1.831340 1.930099
2026-02-01 1.372597 1.457187 1.547857 1.652915 1.772131 1.904240 2.063183
2026-02-08 1.308842 1.406353 1.513344 1.640605 1.789434 1.960058 2.173646
2026-02-15 1.257156 1.363596 1.482557 1.627075 1.800345 2.004800 2.269792
2026-02-22 1.224053 1.338892 1.469391 1.631020 1.829371 2.069978 2.392726
2026-03-01 1.176078 1.293981 1.429531 1.599750 1.812199 2.075237 2.437407
2026-03-08 1.138772 1.259661 1.400141 1.578826 1.805420 2.091526 2.495670
2026-03-15 1.109247 1.233165 1.378623 1.565909 1.807079 2.117497 2.567366
2026-03-22 1.099107 1.229276 1.383944 1.586082 1.851380 2.201252 2.725428
2026-03-29 1.093407 1.230257 1.394860 1.613262 1.905591 2.301102 2.915397
2026-04-05 1.072991 1.212255 1.381173 1.607677 1.915081 2.338714 3.014427
2026-04-12 1.056134 1.198025 1.371560 1.606702 1.930310 2.384729 3.129973
2026-04-19 1.026708 1.167781 1.341274 1.578027 1.906960 2.374891 3.157464
2026-04-26 1.007598 1.149969 1.326300 1.569122 1.910666 2.404881 3.253344
2026-05-03 0.988853 1.132054 1.310549 1.558389 1.910959 2.429287 3.341602
2026-05-10 0.970580 1.114225 1.294312 1.546252 1.908405 2.448747 3.422602
2026-05-17 0.959805 1.105650 1.289813 1.549896 1.928702 2.504691 3.575520
2026-05-24 0.936745 1.080671 1.262970 1.521467 1.900118 2.480673 3.575065
2026-05-31 0.918377 1.061403 1.243252 1.502413 1.884750 2.477115 3.613689
2026-06-07 0.903641 1.046547 1.229040 1.490638 1.879780 2.490130 3.686172
2026-06-14 0.901118 1.047539 1.236000 1.509028 1.921395 2.583106 3.933057
2026-06-21 0.901046 1.051676 1.247213 1.533777 1.973910 2.698568 4.248032
2026-06-28 0.890134 1.041189 1.238182 1.528695 1.979025 2.731195 4.383582